We don’t know anything about the NFL. That’s not some royal “we.” It’s not just fans or pundits—it’s all of us.

OK, we all knew the Green Bay Packers would be pretty good. But you got one prediction wrong, at least. Probably several. Before the season, two of my colleagues were discussing which team would be worse: the San Francisco 49ers or the Cincinnati Bengals. If the season ended today, after 10 weeks, both of those teams would be in the playoffs.

The Philadelphia Eagles had two good quarterbacks last year: Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb. We were sure about it. We—two franchises, at least—gave Kolb and Vick six-year deals worth a combined $165 million this offseason. (Granted, the NFL system allows for the fact that we don’t know anything by guaranteeing very little of its player contracts.)

The NFL crowd isn’t so much prone to overreaction or underreaction; we’re prone to the wrong reactions. Looking around at the midway point of the 2011 season, it’s easy to ask how we got here. Today, we look at five NFL surprises. At this point, with more than half a season gone, we know a little bit. Maybe.

At least we can pretend to.